FREE PICK – MLB FRIDAY

Boston Red Socks v Atlanta Braves 29/04/16

Last game of the four day series will take place tomorrow morning in Boston. Boston Red Socks have dominated all three games so far winning 9-4 11-4 1-0.
Boston Red Socks stand in 5th place taking 12W 9L compared to Atlantas last place 4W 17L.
The Two Pitches J CHACIN (Atlanta) v C BUCHHOLZ (Boston) have both had poor seasons this year, this game could be a high amount of home runs & hits.
With these two pitches having poor form that leads to the batsman, Red Socks have far more dominant batsman as the have 21 home runs against Atlanta’s 8 for the series.
Tip for this play is:
Boston Red Socks – Highest Scoring Innings @ $2.05 (BET365)

NRL ROUND 9 – FREE PICKS – TIPS AND ANALYSIS

Parramatta Eels v Canterbury Bulldogs Friday, April 29, 8pm, ANZ Stadium

There is no doubt that Parramatta look like the better side on paper, but their record at ANZ Stadium could be a little bit disheartening to punters. Last week there may have been some ugly refereeing that saw Parramatta lose momentum in their loss against Cowboys last week although they were definitely one of the better sides to travel to 1300 Smiles this season. Man of the moment, Semi Radradra, has been seeing less of the ball since playing alongside Michael Jennings, as Jennings seems to be a bit more consistent with the try scoring duties. Parramatta are better known for their defense, although they have proven their ability to rack up scores if they find a flaw in the oppositions defense. These two sides have faced off at ANZ stadium in round 3, with Parramatta defeating Bulldogs 20-6. Both sides have an unchanged lineup from last week and generally have low scoring games when they play against eachother.

Key Points
– In the last 8 games, the total between these two sides has exceeded 36 points on 2 occasions.
– Once in 2015 and once in 2013 Eels have not lost 2 in a row this season, though Bulldogs haven’t won back to back since round 2 (Eels lost and Bulldogs won last week)
– Michael Jennings has score 5 tries in his last 3 matches

Conclusion – Click here to see our conclusion bet.
Safe Bet – Alternative Total – under 44.5 – $1.28 (Bet365)
Exotic –  Click here to see our exotic bet.
***Bonus Risk Bet*** Click here to see our risk bet.

 

Gold Coast Titans v Melbourne Storm, Sunday, May 1, CBus Super Stadium

After last weeks incredible performance, Storm really utilised their attacking skills to their full capabilities. Suliasi Vunivalu in his second NRL game had an absolute thriller of a performance, proving his defence was just as fierce as his attack. Melbourne have announced the same line up to enter into this weeks game. As for the Titans, they played a quite impressive game as underdogs against the Bulldogs at ANZ Stadium under wet conditions trailing 14-8 at half time then coming back, bringing it to golden point where the absence of Ashley Taylor may have made a difference the outcome that was and the outcome that could have been. Ashley Taylor will be absent for another week due to an injury. Storm are still the only team in the NRL to not concede over 18 points in a match this season.

Key Points
· Titans have scored the first try in every match this season
· The biggest loss for Titans this season, was dealt by Storm at AAMI Park
· Titans biggest loss at home this season was 8 points, against Broncos
· Titans have a 50% win history against Storm at their home ground

Conclusion – Click here to see our conclusion bet.
Safe – Pick your own line – Storm +8.5 – $1.21 (Crown)
Exotic – Click here to see our exotic bet.
***Bonus Risk Bet*** – Click here to see our risk bet.

 

Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights Saturday, April 30, 5.30pm Allianz Stadium

Roosters played very sloppy in the first half last week against the Dragons and made an outstanding effort to come back in the second. Arguably, some controversial calls were made from the umpire, which may have effected the outcome of the match in the oppositions favor. This week the Roosters will return to Allianz stadium, in hungrier and better form, welcoming back experienced powerhouses Mitchell Pearce and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves. Last week, Newcastle played well but also fell victim to some less than average umpiring, surprisingly at Hunter Stadium. Manly were definitely the better side on the day, although some would agree that the game should have been alot closer. Knights have lost key players Jarrod Mullen and Peter Mata’utia to injury while a debutant will get his first game in the 5/8 position. Roosters have played some decent rugby despite being at the bottom of the ladder, with most of their losses coming from a margin of less than 6 points. Newcastle have been absolutely terrible on the road and this game as predicted will be no exception.

Key points
– Waerea-Hargreaves and Pearce will be back from injury/suspension
– Knights have too many injuries and inexperienced players
– Roosters have the wood over the Knights, beating them in 18 of their last 25 clashes
– The last 4 clashes at Allianz have averaged a margin of 16 points in the Roosters favor

Conclusion – Click here to see conclusion bet.
Safe – Roosters over 6.5 points – $1.33 (Crown)
Exotic – Click here to see exotic bet.
***Bonus Risk Bet*** Click here to see risk bet.

 

New Zealand Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons Sunday, May 1, 12pm, Mt Smart Stadium

With the absolutely embarrassing form that the Warriors possessed against Storm and the amount of injuries that burdens them, it is hard to believe that they come into this match up as favorites. There are certain exceptions that can be made with some teams after being annihilated on the road. Some teams have a tendency to bounce back and perform well at home. In this case there are too many critical players out. Whether it is intentional or not, Dragons have a habit of trying to steal an early lead, then relying on their defense to guard that lead to get them the victory in the second half. The team have been utilizing Gareth Widdop as a key component in their last 2 matches, which seems to be working. Dragons have beaten Warriors in the last 12 matches, in which 11 of them were low scoring. The fact that Warriors have too many outs and Konrad Hurrell still doesn’t get a game, makes me question where they draw the line between emotions and professionalism between the coaching and playing staff, considering that 2+ years ago Konrad Hurrell played a critical role and was nearly a certainty to score in every match. Euan Aitken returns for the Dragons making their much needed attack a bit stronger. Take the upset

Key Points
– Dragons have won their last 12 against Warriors
– Dragons have beaten every team below them on the ladder this season
– Warriors haven’t beaten Dragons since 2013

Conclusion – Click here to see conclusion bet.
Safebet – Alternative Total under 48.5 – $1.25 (Bet365)
Exotic – Click here to see exotic bet.
***(Bonus Risk Bet)*** Click here to see risk bet.

FREE TIPS – WEDNESDAY MLB

Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies. 9:00am 28.4.16

Second game of the Three day Series is takes place in Washington. Nationals are 14-5 whilst Phillies remain 10-10 this season.
Baseball is won by pitching not home runs. Solid pitching reduces home runs, weak pitching increases home runs. This encounter will see GONZALEZ (nationals) v HELLICKSON (Phillies).
Gonzalez has been more then outstanding for Nationals giving away 3 home runs in his last 19 Innings, an ERA of 1.42. Compare this to Hellickson who has performed poorly, giving away 9 home runs in his last 7 innings. Gonzalez stats are far more superior then Hellickson.
Gonzalez faced Phillies just under 2 weeks ago allowing 1 Home Run and 8 Strike outs in 7 innings.
My Tip – Nationals are too dominate thru pitching allowing little runs as possible for Phillies, they will also take advantage of Hellickson pitching, allowing Home runs to be scored
Washington Nationals to win @ $1.50 (LADBROKES)

 

Chicago Cubs v Milwaukee Brewers 10:00am 28.4.16

Chicago Cubs ranked 1st in the National League play against 12th Ranked team. Chicago Cubs are in prime form winning 4 from last 5 where as Brewers are 1 Win from last 5.
The two teams faced off on Wednesday (27th) Cubs winning 4-3. This game was limited to run opportunities due to solid fielding/pitching and non-baseball weather conditions.
J ARRIETA will pitch for Cubs coming off a victory without any Home Runs conceded in those seven innings, Expect solid/smart Pitching by Arriett. Not only is their pitching on point but the Hitters have an incredible 50 HOME RUNS in their last 5 Matches. Compare this to Brewers who have scored 20 Home Runs in their previous 5 matches.
Expect Chicago Cubs to dominate with Smart Pitching and Strong Hitting.
Chicago Cubs @$1.30 (LADBROKES)
Very Confident to take Cubs -1.5

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NRL – ROUND 8 REVIEW

Round 8 – After Round Review

Goldcoast v Canterbury, Gold Coast Titans played considerably well in the wet conditions ANZ stadium had to offer, with Zeb Taia scoring the first try covering our bonus bet, with bulldogs fighting back to score 3 unanswered tries in the first half, then opening up the second half with another. Titans played an impressive second half, coming back to tie with the Bulldogs scoring another two converted tries although losing the game in Golden Point 21-20 to a Josh Reynolds drop goal. Ashley Taylor was absent in this match and perhaps his presence may have made a difference although the result covers the projected line for our conclusion and safe bets. Kerrod Holland missed 2/4 conversions, which is understandable in those weather conditions leaving our Exotic Bet at a loss.

Cronulla vs Penrith may have been the match of the round, with Jamie Sowards poor ability to kick conversions consistently, costing them the game. Young gun Te Maire Martin had been a great addition to the team, though suffered an injury which is unfortunately becoming more common in the rookie season. This resulted in James Fisher-Harris having an amazing game scoring two tries due to the formation being reconfigured, pushing him further out onto the wing. In this game, Cronulla really showed that they are a real contender this year. This was always going to be a close game in which the better side in the clutch really had to shine giving us both our Conclusion and Safe bets. Poor kicking from Soward and a try from Maloney, resulted in our Exotic bet winning, giving us a perfect 3/3.

Dragons vs Roosters was one of them games that was hard to watch in the first half. The sloppy form on the Roosters led to Dragons scoring 3 tries in the first half. Dragons opened the scoring with a penalty goal from Widdop which won them the game as the 2 point difference was the final margin. As we seen the week before, when Dragons get an early lead against their opposition, they tend to stop attacking and defend their lead which is exactly what happened here this week again. Roosters played an outstanding second half and were able to come back. A few controversial calls from referees may have had an effect on how this game panned out. Due to the Roosters being on the back foot from Dragons early scores and some errors from bad form had resulted in Roosters having to defend for most of the first half, resulting in our exotic bet being a loss. Due to the game being close as expected and reasonably low scoring, we were able to score 2/3 Having said that, the tackle count was still close as Roosters dominated the second half. Roosters definitely looked the better side and I would be inclined to take the exact same exotic bet if the game happened again.

Storm vs Warriors was just an absolute bloodbath which was great if you are A storm supporter. To think that before the match people were predicting an upset to happen which commonly occurs between the two sides, with Warriors having one of the best records in the NRL against Storm. The exotic bet would have been Vunavalu to score a try though no bookies had the option as he was in doubt to play. Blake Ayshford was sin binned early in the match which led to an already battered Warriors side to fall further behind. Lolohea was added to the injury list as was Simon Maneuvering, leaving Warriors a side to be easy to bet against in the upcoming weeks. Storm continued to be the only team this season to not concede 20 points as Warriors played their weakest game of the season. Had Storm been awarded their disallowed tries, we would have gone 0/3. Due to a late try on the 79th minute from Vunavalu, bringing the scores to 42-0 we lost our conclusion bet. Our safe bet came through as always as Warriors didn’t score any points. Warriors tackle count was obviously higher than Storms due to Storm always being in possession of the ball and Warriors being forced to defend.

Our total our efforts were 8/12 which is 75% strike rate after possibly one of the hardest rounds to pick.

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NRL ROUND 8 – DRAGONS V ROOSTERS / PANTHERS V SHARKS / WARRIORS V STORM – TIPS AND ANALYSIS

St George Illawarra Dragons v Sydney Roosters Monday – 4pm , Allianz Stadium, Sydney

An interesting matchup this week between these two sides as last week we saw Roosters nearly upset Penrith and St George having their best performance of the season against Titans. Defense is certainly not an issue to the Dragons though I think most would agree that they possess the worst attack in the NRL. If Roosters let some tries leak early in the game, losing the first half, I can see Dragons going ahead to win the game. Roosters defense is subpar at best although there are whispers that veterans Boyd Cordner and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves may be late inclusions, returning from injury to even the playing field. Besides the embarrassment that occurred at 1300 Smiles against Cowboys, where Roosters were obliterated 40-0, they have managed to stay within single digits of every opponent they have faced. Dragons have a better record on ANZAC day matches and have won the majority of the clashes between Dragons vs Roosters in general, though the recent form would suggest that Roosters could outclass them in this one. From the aforementioned we can gather that this game will be close, defensive and low scoring.

Key Points
• Shaun Kenny-Dowall has scored 5 times in the last 5 games vs Dragons
• Dragons have scored under 20 points in every match this season
• Roosters have won 6 of their last 7 games against Dragons All Bets on Crown

Conclusion – Click here to see our conclusion bet
Safe – Neither Team Scores 30 – $1.30 (CROWNBET)
Exotic – Click here to see our exotic bet
***(Bonus Risk Bet)*** Click here to see our risk bet

 

Cronulla Sharks v Penrith Panthers Sunday, 4pm, Shark Park, Sydney

Cronulla have been impressive so far this season earning themselves a spot in the top 4, while Penrith are sitting 10th on the ladder with only points % keeping from being a top 8 side. Ex Panther Luke Lewis returns to Cronulla from suspension, adding to the already superior defense that the Sharks possess. Sam Mckendry is out for Panthers, which could damage their chances. Panthers are one of the few teams that can travel to Shark Park and win against the home side having done it on numerous occasions. Sharks have not lost a game at home this season and Penrith have not won consecutive games this season making Cronulla the more favourable side to back in this match up.

Key Points
• Penriths win/loss point difference is 8 points or less for this season
• Besides Canberra and sides in the bottom 4, Sharks victories this season have been decided by 8 points or less.
• Penrith have won the last 5/10 games at Shark Park with 8/10 of the Total scores resulting in over 40

Conclusion – Tri Bet – Either Team Under 12.5 – $1.75 (CROWNBET)
Safe – Click here to see our safe bet
Exotic – Click here to see our exotic bet
***(Bonus Risk Bet)*** Click here to see our risk bet

 

Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors Monday, 7pm, AAMI Park

The Anzac day clashes between these two sides have been nothing short of spectacular in the past and we are hoping that this game carries on this Monday in the same fashion. Warriors played some remarkable rugby last week to take down the Bulldogs at Westpac Stadium for the first time. Unfortunately one of Warriors top tier players, fullback Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, has suffered an injury which has resulted in him being out for the season. Lolohea will move from the halves into fullback to take over Tuivasa-Shecks duties while Luluai moves into the halves to offside Shaun Johnson. Storm played rather average last week when they defeated West Tigers in golden point, with rookie Suliasi Vunavalu picking up two tries in replacement of Young Tonuimapaea. This week Tonuimapaea returns to the side, as does Manu Vatuvei for the Warriors. This may be the hardest game of the round to tip so there may be more inclination to bet on the games match points rather than to tip a winner.

Key points
• Monday night games tend to be lower scoring
• Storm are the only team who haven’t conceded 20 points this season
• Storm have won the last two encounters at AAMI Park

Conclusion – Total Points under 40.5 – $1.85 (CROWNBET)
Safe – Click here to see our safe bet
Exotic – Click here to see our Exotic bet
***(Bonus risk bet)*** Click here to see our risk bet.

NRL ROUND 8 – BULLDOGS v TITANS – TIPS AND ANALYSIS

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs v Gold Coast Titans – Saturday, 3pm

ANZ Stadium There is no denying the Bulldogs ability to play although they have been one of the more inconsistent sides this season, with their better performances happening on the road. They are yet to win one at home, losing to Warriors at Westpac stadium last week and Parramatta at ANZ. Gold Coast have had the ability to stay within close margins against top 4 sides including Broncos and Sharks despite losing against Dragons last week which arguably played their best game of the season. Bulldogs rookie Kerrod Holland has been a great addition to the side, seeing the try line on numerous occasions and taking on the kicking duties. Greg Bird returns from suspension for the Titans leaving Eddy Pettybourne as the 18th man. Ashley Taylor has been declared fit to play after injury concern from last week against the Dragons. Titans and Bulldogs have played a total of 13 matches with Titans having a 7 to 6 advantage over them.

Key points
• Luke Douglas will be playing his 100th game
• Curtis Rona has scored 4 tries in 2 matches against the Titans
• Bulldogs are yet to win at home this season
• Titans have beaten Bulldogs 7/13 clashes
Conclusion – Titans +18.5 (Pick your own line) @ 1.42 (CROWNBET)
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NRL ROUND 7 – ROOSTERS v PANTHERS – TIPS AND ANALYSIS

Monday night Game – Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers – 7pm

Sydney Roosters are another one of them teams that have had a rough trot in the start of the season, though you can visibly see the hunger in this inexperienced side consisting of young guns, debutants and veterans fused into the starting lineup. Last week Roosters saw their first win this season against under performing Rabbitohs at ANZ which gives me more confidence that Roosters will perform well at their home ground Allianz this week. Roosters have won the majority of their games against Penrith including 6 of their last 8 encounters at home. Not taking anything away from Penrith as they are the only side to defeat the almighty Broncos so far this season but based on this seasons history, all Penrith games have been decided by a very small margin. Roosters are missing Sio Siua Taukeiaho which may have an effect on their defense although they should cover quite comfortably. Penriths side is unchanged from last weeks lineup.

Key notes
• Shaun Kenny-Dowall has scored in his last 3 encounters with Penrith
• Every Penrith game this season, win or lose, has had a tight margin (8 points the highest)
• Roosters vs Panthers last 3 matches against each other have been low scoring

Conclusion –
Safe Bet – Neither team to score 30 points $1.40 (CROWNBET)
Tri Bet – Either team to win under 12.5 points $1.74 (CROWNBET)
Exotic – Shaun Kenny-Dowall to score a Try $1.94 (LADBROKES)

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NRL ROUND 7 – Sharks v Raiders & Tigers v Storm – TIPS AND ANALYSIS

Sunday Game Round 7 – Canberra Raiders v Cronulla Sharks – 2pm

Canberra have been very inconsistent this season, from tallying up big scores to being outclassed by mediocre teams. This game could turn out to be a great high scoring one as even the guys in the forward pack such as Papaali and Fensom from the Raiders, are all quite competent in scoring tries. Canberras biggest concern is their defense or lack thereof and playing with the same intensity for the whole match. Soliola is injured which should take even more away from the already suffering defense. Hence the embarrassing hand they were dealt last week against the Eels. Blake Austin is said to be ruled out of todays game, due to another injury and Josh Hodgson has been named to play although in doubt due to a hand injury from last weeks match. Cronulla are a strong defensive side. Luke Lewis will be absent from todays game due to suspension although Cronulla have enough powerhouses in the forward pack to cover. Cronulla are a side that can play with the same intensity for 80 minutes, meaning that if Raiders don’t get a big enough head start in the first half, I can’t see them outplaying the Sharks in the second.

Key points
• Cronulla have won 3 out of 4 of the last games in Canberra
• Canberra are missing a lot of their key players and there are more in doubt
• Ricky Leutele has scored in his last 2 games vs Raiders
• Ben Barba has scored in his last 3 games this season

Conclusion – Cronulla Sharks (-2.0) $1.93  (Ladbrokes) (UK Ladbrokes)
Safe bet – First Half Cronulla Sharks Total points – Over 8.5 – $1.63 (Crownbet)
Exotic – Ben Barba to score a Try $2.30 (Crownbet)

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Sunday Game Round 7 – Wests Tigers v Melbourne Storm – 4pm

Storm have hit a bit of a brick wall in the last two weeks, losing two games and playing a close one against the very average Knights at home. Tigers on the other hand, got beaten by the very average Knights at Hunter Stadium. The absence of Woods really takes away from the defense they were already lacking in. Storms lineup has been shuffled around since losing Will Chambers, Ben Hampton will be playing full back as Cameron Munster will be moving up into the Centers. Storm will no doubt look to dominate in the forward line. The forecast is rain in Sydney and Leichardt Oval is an outdoors setting, which implies the scores to be lower than you could normally expect between these two sides. Probably one of the hardest bets of the round

Key points
• Koroibete is an ex Tiger and usually plays extremely well against them
• Tedesco has scored a try in his last 3 matches against the Storm
• In 5/6 rounds this season, Tigers have won the first half.

Conclusion – First Half Winner – Tigers $2.05 (Crownbet)
Safe bet – Total Tries – Under 8.5 $1.41 (Crownbet)
Exotic – James Tedesco to Score a Try $1.55 (Crownbet)

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