State of Origin Game 1

Queensland Vs New South Wales
31 May 2017, 8:10pm.
Suncorp Stadium.

Well it’s the best time of year, Queensland Vs New South Wales, Mate Vs Mate, State Vs State! It is arguably the greatest time to be a fan of this great game, with every person picking a team and getting behind them 100%.


A team full of immortals for the last 11 years, has been forced into changes due to a horror injury toll and players left out of selection. Qld will be with out J. Thurston (many NSW fans still believe he will play until the final team lists are named), G. Inglis , M. Scott, C. Parker (retired) and B. Slater (controversial admission). It’s a new look Qld team but what has not changed in 40 Origin games is their captain and NRL legend C. Smith. With his General C. Cronk by his side and D. Boyd sweeping around the back from set plays, it’s still a very formidable team.

A lot of the spot light has been on A. Milford this week, with a lot of questions about his kicking game and he will be tested in defence with the NSW second rowers charging at him. Milford is a great player in broken play, traditionally in game 1, it’s a tight affair and low scoring, will he get a broken line in defence? Time will tell, he will need to be at his best to try and help Smith and Cronk to deliver another first game win.

With B. Slater being omitted, pressure shifts to D. Boyd and C. Oates who were the incumbents of last year and Coach Walters made the tough call on them. Coach Walters didn’t want to put Slater under huge pressure for a Game 1 in origin. It could be argued that B. Slater is the greatest Full back to ever have pulled on the No.1 jumper at any level. However, D. Boyd is in great form for his club and did represent Australia earlier in the year, in our opinion, Coach Walters made the correct call. What this does however is place C. Oates under immense pressure and that worries us. He hasn’t been at his best but the Qld Camp seems to make players grow an inch or two for the big games.

New South Wales

Once again New South Wales have tinkered with their team as they search for a First game victory to try and stem the Qld onslaught of the last 11 years. The return of M. Pearce and exclusion of R. Farah for N. Peats are the biggest talking points in game 1. Coach Daley has made these moves based on the form of M. Pearce and sending a message to his team that he wants his halves to run the shots.
Pearce is arguably in the greatest form of his career, he has not performed in origin, but he’s payed his dues and now it’s his time to stand up. He will get more early service from Peats and this will help him no end. He also has his old partner in crime J. Maloney, who can ease the pressure on him if required.

What is exciting for us, is the mixture of age, talent and in form players. It’s arguably NSW best forward pack in many a year with the majority of players able to play the 80 minutes in club games. The options in attack have grown 10 fold with the Edge Back rowers able to kick and deliver passes if required. With the middle of the field being the gauge of who will win, NSW have taken big steps to combat the experience Qld middle players, it’s just mouth watering to wait and see.

The spotlight for us will be on J. Tedesco. He has been holding the West Tigers team together and busting his guts week in week out for no result. For NSW sake we hope he can be at his best working off the back of his forwards (who will be 100 times better than his club level). He has looked tired the last few weeks, but he has been carrying a heavy load, in this team he will be able to relax more and play his natural game which is slicing and dicing defensive structures. A lot of talk also about N. Peats, for us he will play a straight game and deliver early ball to his halves, simple play to allow his backs to do their work.

Team lists

Both teams are expected to be named 1-17, however if you speak to the NSW die hard fans they still believe Thurston is a chance until the final team lists are announced an hour before the game.

Their last 6 game report card:
2016 – Game 3 – NSW won by 4 at ANZ stadium
2016 – Game 2 – QLD won by 10 at Suncorp Stadium
2016 – Game 1 – QLD won by 2 at ANZ stadium
2015 – Game 3 – Qld won by 46 at Suncorp Stadium
2015 – Game 2 – NSW won by 8 at Melbourne Cricket Ground
2015 – Game 1 – Qld won by 1 at ANZ stadium

What we take from this?

It’s a simple equation in origin, if you win game 1 you have a 74% chance of winning the series since the conception of State of Origin. Home ground advantage is a massive component in origin as well, this first game is in QLD which leans us to a QLD victory. C. Smith and C. Cronk are the Key, C. Smith is able to influence the ruck and game speed better than any other player to date. With his ability to read the game is second to none and we aren’t sure how NSW can combat this. The only series NSW has won in the last decade, was when C. Cronk did not play all the games, he is often overlooked in this great team, but he is the best Half back in the modern era. Watch his control off the back of his forwards and his ability to deliver the fatal pass/kick, well, there is none better.

For Us Qld win the game, with a lot of team changes we aren’t trying to cap the total or margin, it seems unbelievable that Qld have moved to the below odds.
GL and enjoy this great contest.

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Cronulla Sharks Vs North Queensland Cowboys
18 May 2017, 7:50pm (AEST)
Southern Cross Group Stadium

The minor premiers are 6 wins from their last 7 starts, in stark contrast to the 2015 champions who are stumbling and bumbling their way with 4 wins from 7 games. A great origin test for some hopefuls is the cheery on top for this clash.

Cronulla Sharks, 2nd, 7-0-3
It must be said that the Sharks error rate almost cost them against the spirited Dragons outfit last round. If G. Widdop was fit and playing the result could have been a flogging with the Dragons scoring 30+ points. But the Sharks keep demonstrating their pride for their mates and defend with their lives in their 20m zone. They continue to stop teams from scoring points, since round 1 (Brisbane 26 points) they have not conceded more than 18 points (Knights round 5) for the rest of the year to date. Their points total scored against them currently is 132, the next best team is the Roosters at 152 (3 converted tries and a penalty goal) an absolutely crazy statistic.

S. Feki scored two tries in the last round and seems to be finding the ball more, which is a positive sign. Many people have forgotten about his skills that he has and we expect him to keep producing the goods for his club. With Holmes turning out 173m, Fifita 162m, Gallen 154m, Bird 149m and Leutele 120m the go forward was very impressive, they will need to be wary of their handling this round, as the Cowboys clicked well last week.

For us the Sharks can start getting their attack in order, this team has the potential to go deep this year once again.

North Queensland Cowboys, 6th, 6-0-4

The Cowboys shook off the haters last week and put the Bulldogs to the sword. M. Morgan keeps reminding the Qld faithful that he is ready, with some magnificent kicking that lead to ties and sustained pressure. They also had an outstanding completion rate of 83% and had 4 less errors than the Bulldogs, which helped their dominating win. 5 tries, 2 to second rower sensation C. Hess, Feldt, Spina and Morgan caped off his brilliant performance with a try also. Morgan had his best game to date and was in full control for the whole 80 minutes, a promising sign for this club to move forward into the future post J. Thurston’s career.

With M. Scott out for the season many people were wondering who would help J. Taumalolo, enter S. Bolton. Massive stats for this game with 162m from 16 runs and a lazy 35 tackles, thank you very much, to lead both those statistics for his game in round 10. Former half back J. Asiata, proved that his motor is still large after his games in the backs. A 144m, tied in with 24 tackles, is a great sign for his coach that they can function without him calling the shots and allowing him just to run hard and straight. R. Thompson had his moments in the match, some good and some poor, however he will get better as this year progresses. He will need to run more than 9m this week, as the sharks will be hunting Morgan extremely hard.

For us, this game is a reminder that the Cowboys can score points if you are not focused for the entire 80 minutes.

Stats that matter from Round 10

Completion rate: Sharks 68%, NQ 83%
Offloads: Sharks 13, NQ 4
Missed Tackles: Sharks 33, NQ 16
Penalties conceded: Sharks 7, NQ 11 (1 sin bin)

Team news: (Final team lists released an hour before the game)

Cronulla Sharks

M. Prior accepted the option to accept a 1 week ban, this promotes C. Heighington to starting prop. J. Paulo drops off the bench making way for J. Bukuya, with no other changes expected.

North Queensland Cowboys

It’s a mystery to see if J. Thurston will play tomorrow or he will be withdrawn. The general consensus is that he won’t play, due to origin being around the corner, however he is mentally tough and may convince his coach otherwise if he can prove his fitness. If he does get the green light, expect R. Thompson to drop from the 17, with Hampton acting as “cover” for the worst case scenario. Interestingly K. Ponga is named as number 21, so like last week we expect him to drop off the list barring injury, which is unfortunate as this kid should be playing at the top level.

Their last 5 game report card:

Cronulla Sharks, 3 wins with 2 being at home and one at Allianz stadium
North Queensland Cowboys, 2 wins both at 1300 SMILES stadium

2016 – Round 29 – Sharks won by 12 at Allianz Stadium
2016 – Round 14 – Sharks won by 3 at Southern Cross Group Stadium
2016 – Round 1 – Cowboys won by 6 points at 1300 SMILES Stadium
2015 – Round 28, Cowboys won by 39 points at 1300 SMILES Stadium
2015 – Round 22, Sharks won by 12 at Southern Cross Group Stadium

What we take from this?

It’s going to be a great teaser for the upcoming origin series, with Maloney and Morgan on show and possibly the halves that will meet in game 1. If either half really takes control of the game it will go a long way into them getting chosen to represent their state, we are leaning towards Maloney due to his larger forward pack. With that in mind, other origin hopefuls will be on display, W. Graham, A. Fifita, C. Hess, G. Cooper will be also treating this as a trial, adding more fuel to this already mouth-watering game.

We believe that the offloading from the Sharks players is going to worry the Cowboys. The Sharks average 11.4 (6th highest) a game compared to 5 (last) for the Cowboys, highlighting this is the All Run Meter comparison which leans towards the Sharks with 1,628 average meters to the Cowboys 1,565m. For the Cowboys to combat this, they will need to beat their average of 52% (1st) possession rate and also top their tackle bust average of 32 (1st). If the Sharks error rate is high (12 or more, worst in the competition) and concede their average penalties (8 a game, once again worst in the NRL) it will be a lot closer than people give credit for.

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Canterbury Bulldogs Vs North Queensland Cowboys
11 May 2017, 7:50pm (AEST) ANZ Stadium
Unfortunately this game is missing big names from both teams, which will sour this tough match up. Which team will miss it’s half the most, will that will decide the game. Let’s have a look.
Canterbury Bulldogs, 8th, 5-0-4
A massive confidence boost to the Bulldogs with a gutsy win over the Canberra Raiders by 6 points. The Morris brothers showing why they can still play origin by putting on a Master class on “Lei-Pana”. The determination of the squad was on full display when they lost both Graham and J. Reynolds to HIA and injury. They did not falter in the middle third and handled the attacking plays thrown at them. This will hold them in good stead this week, against a Cowboys outfit missing a super star and welcoming a few players back, which will disrupt some combinations. W. Hopoate is playing like a man possessed (and is off contract) his timely return to form really adds some depth to the Bulldogs and is one to watch for us.

North Queensland Cowboys, 9th 5-0-4
It’s the age old question, can the Cowboys win without J. Thurston. A very ordinary start to the year and it continued this way as they were defeated by a rampaging Eels, led by one C. Norman at home, 6-26. It took 64 minutes for them to cross the line, if they take that long to score this week, it will not be a pretty sight for their faithful fans. 13 incomplete sets really highlighted their performance in a nut shell. No matter who you play, if you complete at 66% you will be hammered, the obvious statement is they need to switch this statistic 180 degrees to be able to compete against the Bulldogs. Taumalolo needs help, he is a monster, but he can’t carry this team, last week he carried the ball for 115m, the nearest forward was Bolton with a poultry 84m. A few big inclusions for them this week, will they help Taumalolo to combat a building Bulldogs pack? Time will tell.
Stats that matter from Round 9
Completion rate: BUL 82%, NQ 66%
Run meters: BUL 1,848m, NQ 1,251m
If the numbers look the same after the final whistle, the Bulldogs have a large win next to their name.
Team news: (Final team lists released an hour before the game)
Canterbury Bulldogs team changes:
J. Reynolds is out with a ham string injury, approximately 5 weeks. This allows M. Frawley to start. The other change is G. Eastwood to start and Score trying sensation A. Elliot is bumped back to warm the bench.
North Queensland Cowboys team changes:
Put the kettle on, we are going to be here for a while; ok the Big IN’s are J. Granville and L. Coote. Also a surprise inclusion of R. Thomson in for the injured J. Thurston, which signals the end to the “Asiata” experiment in the halves. He moves back to the front row, with E. Lowe and S. Fensom making the starting side and bench respectfully. Second row sensation, C. Hess is named on the bench also with K. Ponga dropped to number 21 to make way for L. Coote. Granville returns to the hooker position, moving Hampton to a utility role on the bench and Leary to number 19.
However, we aren’t sold on their starting line-up, with the high chance of L. Coote switching to the Halves and K. Ponga to full back. This would push out R. Thompson who has come out of right field. But as it says above final team lists will be known an hour from kick off. A small hint will come tonight around 8pm, when they will have to drop two players for the 21 list. If Ponga is still there he may be a late inclusion, if he is dropped off, we believe 1-13 will be correct.

Their last 5 game report card:
Canterbury Bulldogs have won only the one game (away) from the last 5 starts.
North Queensland Cowboys take a dominate 4 wins into this match up, two of those were away wins.
2016 – Round 25 – NQ won by 8 points at Belmore Stadium
2016 – Round 20 – NQ won by 36 points at 1300 SMILES Stadium
2015 – Round 9 – NQ won by 7 at 1300 SMILES Stadium
2014 – Round 20 – NQ won by 8 points at ANZ Stadium
2013 – Round 13 – Bulldogs won by 10 points at 1300 SMILES Stadium

What we take from this?
By the Books it’s been an age for a Bulldogs victory, but what we can say is that J. Thurston played in each of those wins in History. From what we have seen this year minus his ability, NQ have looked lost. Two influential players are back, but first game back will be rusty.

Brief summary
For us the Bulldogs ($1.60) deserve the favourite tag for this match. They will miss J. Reynolds and his inspirational plays, however NQ will miss J. Thurston more. Coote and Granville will keep the score line respectable, however we don’t expect them to be at their best with extended breaks from “Game fitness”. Bulldogs will be too strong in the middle third and will take the two competition points.

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Australia Vs New Zealand
5 May 2017, 8:05pm (AEST)
GIO Stadium

Current Free Tip Record – 22 won-12 loss

As the majority of the players kick back and enjoy an early season week off, for all the good reasons, we are delivered some tantalising footy that is back to the roots. Representative round is a great initiative that has grown some legs and momentum letting the players from outside Australia and New Zealand their chance to perform for their nation. Let’s not get into the negatives this round and just embrace the games as they should be, so sit back and get ready for some passionate Rugby League, the Greatest game of all.
The first serving is Australian Vs New Zealand in the ANZAC test match, not played on ANZAC day. However the feeling will be in this game, a heavily criticised Australian team vs an impressive looking New Zealand team.
Australian, 1st in the RLIF rankings,
The Australian coaching staff has been absolutely hammered for their choice of players, going for “Loyalty” over “Form” by many commentators. With more opinions than there is sand, all that matters in the Australian camp is their belief in one and another. Yes, it’s that simple, under Coach M. Meninga the team has re captured some of the 1990’s early 2000’s form, where Australia was unbeatable. Australia has not lost a test match since 2015 and that’s having played New Zealand 4 times in that period. This will be a strong test of fortitude under Coach Meninga, as the press will be relentless, if his choices under perform this Friday night in the nation’s capital.
What can’t be argued is the pedigree he has chosen, with proven match winners across the park, in our opinion it will come down to the bench men. And Meninga has some monsters sitting on the bench waiting for their chance in this game. We are extremely excited to see the impact of T. Frizell, coming off the bench, we are expecting fireworks and then some. He has been in great form at club level and it’s his time to press for a Green and Gold starting position for later in the year.
We can’t forget about the Australian Captain in Mr Cameron Smith, in an outstanding career to date, he is the second person in History to play in 50, yes 50, test matches for his country. An amazing number, but like he has said “numbers just mean you have been around for too long”. We strongly disagree, he is the heart of this team and extremely humble which makes him the leader he is. Sure the backs get all ink in the history books for try scored etc, but if the books could be written about determination and leadership well, we could sink the titanic with his story. An outstanding career, which could go on for a few more years yet, watch him take control of the middle third and slowly work the opposition around to his teams strengths. He will then strike and deliver the perfect touch to get Australia ticking along.
Our bold prediction, Australia to have early possession and territory, with a short pass to A. Fifita to crash over for the first try.

New Zealand, 2nd in the RLIF rankings,
What a luxury it is to have the National teams spine (players 1,6,7,9) playing week in and week out at club level. This is a large advantage to New Zealand, as we have seen the development of these combinations the last few weeks. This may not show results on the ladder, but they are living and breathing footy together, add in the short preparation and it is a tick for New Zealand. With an impressive forward pack in great form at club level, there is cracking match ups across the park. M. Taupau has been near the best player week in and week out for the Sea Eagles and this game he won’t have to do it all himself. With J. Taumalolo at his metre eating best, S. Mannering aka the tackling machine and redemption man R. Packer, never taking a backwards step.
Traditionally where New Zealand has struggled in recent matches is the intensity from the bench. You know what is coming in the first 20-25 minutes, but if Australia can weather the emotion and physicality of this period, it could be trouble for New Zealand. With an extra two interchanges, there is a chance that they run with more “utility” options rather than “Beef” sitting on the side. Discipline is the key however, New Zealand really needs to play with a calm head, if they don’t the game will be taken away from them early and will make it hard to grind it back.
Our bold prediction for New Zealand, is a long range try off a Taupau offload to either half and R.T-Sheck to score.

Team news: (Final team lists released an hour before the game)
Australia is expected to run out 1-17, with both Boyd and Thurston expected to play despite being under wraps with slight injuries.
New Zealand has named a Squad, but we are expecting the obvious players to run out, with no obvious injuries being reported as they prepare in Sydney.
Their last 5 game report card:
2016 – Australia won by 26 points
2016 – Australia won by 6 points
2016 – Australia won by 20 points
2016 – Australia won by 16 points
2015 – New Zealand won by 14 points
What we take from this?
Australia has been dominate in their last 4 matches and not surprisingly this coincided with Coach Meninga taking over. He has brought his success from Queensland’s domination to the Green and Gold and is making the players “Rise” to new levels under his tutelage. The last time New Zealand won, was the last time K. Foran played for them, showing once again his importance to this squad. He will need to be at his best, along with Johnson, Taupau, Taumalolo and R.T-Sheck to keep them in this game.
For Us it will be a tight game, as long as New Zealand channel their discipline like Buda himself and take their chances it should be exciting from kick off to when the ground attendants round up the Penguins that reside in Canberra this time of year.

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