GRAND FINAL – STORM V COWBOYS – FREE TIPS

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Melbourne Storm Vs North Queensland Cowboys
1 Oct 2017, 7:15pm
ANZ Stadium

It’s the Minor Premiers vs the 8th Rank wrecking balls for the final game of the season. With all the expectations on the all conquering Storm, can the fairy tale continue for the Battered Cowboys?

With out a shadow of a doubt the Melbourne Storm have been the best team in 2017. Having only lost 4 games all season, with the most Points scored, 633 and least points scored against them, with a poultry 336, it’s really Day light second in season 2017.
The Storm had their toughest match in a long period against a spirited Eels outfit, with their class hanging on to win by 2 points and earning the week off. After the weeks rest, it was a training gallop and an absolute clinic as they dismantled a dismal Brisbane outfit, that was off the pace and received a drumming of 30-0. With a simple run before the Grand Final this could be a blessing in disguise as Brisbane simply fell apart and the only hard tackles were late and limited in effect.

With the “Trio’s” era coming to an end, it looks like an unlikely task for the Cowboys. However most critics gave them no chance as they made the Top 8 off the back of the Dragons self imploding.
But to their credit, the Cowboys have played simple footy, Treat the ball like your first child and Never give up. With this ringing in their ears, they have squeezed out a Golden Point win vs the fumbling Sharks, side stepped their way through an in experienced Eels team putting 24 points on them, to win by 8 and out muscled the Roosters in a Stella second half performance to win by 13 points and book their place vs the Storm.

The Key Match Up: C. Smith Vs J. Granville.

No real surprise here, however this match up will decide the game. We know both forward packs will be striving for every inch, Cronk and Morgan will be at their kicking best and Slater/Coote will be scheming like thieves at night.

But the Hooker (no.9) is the key to both teams, both play a different style which is fascinating to watch and mouth watering to say the least.

C. Smith, aka CS9 or GOAT (in the Hooker position) has really mastered and manufactured so many wins for the Melbourne Storm. He seems to have inside knowledge of the oppositions game plan before they do and dismantles them as he goes about his business. This annoys the oppositions fans, but for the neutral fan it’s a great spectacle and it’s the reason why he’s the Qld and Australian captain.
The superlatives are all but exhausted on him, overtaking so many legends on all the records as he looks to add another premiership to his belt.

Watch for:
1. A 40/20m kick tomorrow, he has become more active on this during the lead up to the finals, he may not land one, but the pure ability that he can keeps the wingers deep on defence. With the wingers deep, this allows his Halves to take on the line and create chances for his sensational wingers.
2. Short passing close to the try line. He has developed this floating movement close to the oppositions try line, then turns the ball on the inside, when the defenders over chase him. It’s a very subtle change to his usual movement, but it’s uncanny as he must have eyes in the back of his head sometimes to pull it off.
3. None stop Heart. He will play every minute of this game and the effort he starts with is what he finishes with. Because of his stamina, he is able to read the game in the “fatigued” stages and make the right choices under huge stress. A lot of Hookers can’t sustain this and lose this ability to “feel” the game and it hurts their team. He won’t go missing and look for the 9 all day around the middle third of the ground.

J. Granville
He is a very good player, his speed from dummy half is second to none and has a very good passing game both long and short. He will need to be at his best to give the Cowboys any chance of victory this grand final.
1. Sniping ability, he is almost the best Hooker in this area of the game. He loves it when markers split early or only one makes it onside and he takes off down the field. This puts pressure on the defenders to get up early in the tackles or risk him splitting them up the middle.
2. Crisp deliver, much like the Post man, Granville delivers on time. He has a great ability to get his passes to the key men 99% of the time. In today’s game this will be exceptionally important as the Storm will be ruthless all match.
3. Questionable stamina. This would be our only criticism of his game, he tends to be taken off and giving time to re gather his speed for a second burst. It’s a catch 22, he can then target the bigger men in the middle of the park, but then loses his “Feel” for the games flow.

Statistics to consider:

9 from the last 10 games between the Storm and Cowboys have been won by the Favourite.
The Storm have won their last 13 matches whilst being the favourite.
The Storm have won their last 5 vs the Cowboys.
The Storm have won 6 from 8 matches interstate at Night and 83% during the 2017 season at night.
The Storm have scored the first Try in 65% of their matches in 2017.
The Storm have won 13 out of 18 matches at night, whilst leading at Half time.
Storm Average: 26 points in attack and allow 13.5 points in defence. With an average winning margin of 16 points.
Cowboys average: 19.8 points in attack and allow 18 points in defence. With an average winning margin of 10 points.
Matches at ANZ, average a winning margin of 12 points and a game total of 38 in Season 2017.

For us the above point to the dominance of the Storm all year. We are predicting a very good win by the Storm. The First half is going to be brutal and at a frantic pace, with a few opportunities, but where the game will come to life will be the second half. Both teams have been exceptional in the second 40 minutes and we are expecting the same, with the ball seeing more flight and risks being taken or a Run away effort by the Storm over a gallant Cowboys outfit.

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NRL ROUND 25 – BRONCOS v EELS – FREE TIPS

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Brisbane Broncos Vs Parramatta Eels
24 Aug 2017, 7:50pm (AEST)
Suncorp Stadium

After Round 21 where the Broncos were put played convincingly by the Eels at home, will Brisbane return the favour on their home soil?

Brisbane Broncos, 15-0-7, 2nd (+172)

It looks like Master coach W. Bennett has his team humming at the right time of the season yet again. They have climbed to second on the ladder in a blink of an eye. Currently on a scoring feast, clocking up 54,32 and 24 points in their last 3 games and not conceding more than 12 points in the same games. Having won 7 out of their last 10 games, currently 3 in a row, they face the Eels who embarrassed them in round 21.

Revenge is a dish best served cold and we believe they will be up for this weeks challenge. They went to Sydney expecting an easy match, but the Eels showed their full potential and won 28-14.
Last week after a good hit out against the Dragons, A. Milford regained the form his team requires for them to go deep into the finals. He was dynamic and seems to be developing a good combination with K. Nikorima and B. Hunt in the hooker position. A player that isn’t getting much thanks from outside the club is S. Thaiday, told he wasn’t required after next year, he has really stepped up his efforts to try and deliver. Showing his potential to any clubs that want a veteran forward to develop their young players.

Premierships in the modern era are built around defensive structures, conceding 20 points or more only 8 times this season, is a strong indicator that they are gearing up for a big finals series. With a ridiculous For and Against (+/-) of 172, they just need to win 1 of their last 2 games to secure a top 4 position.

For us, the initial 20 minutes will tell us how the game will go. If Brisbane get a roll on early (which we are expecting) the foot won’t come off the throttle and they could win by another large margin. In the back of their minds a win this week secures a Top four position and potentially a home game to kick of the final series.
They will be tough to beat.
Parramatta Eels, 14-0-8, 5th (+15)

Coach Arthur has really pulled this team together during the course of the season. Heavily questioned about his recruitment of M. Moses, has proved to be a master stroke. This has allowed C. Norman, B. French and their hookers to lessen their stress and allow them to “float” and pick their times to strike. With the halves looking rather settled, their forward pack has grown an inch or two also. N. Brown has been immense for the Blue and Gold, averaging 152m of 15 hit ups and a lazy 34 tackles per match. A great buy for Parramatta and like Moses, his work load is infectious and has flowed throughout the team.
With 8 wins from their last 10 starts, a shock loss to the Knights, stopped their 6 game winning streak and “was the game they had to lose” to shock them back to thinking about the upcoming finals series.

With the victory against Brisbane just 4 rounds ago, their spirits will be high. And this could play into the Brisbane’s hands if they are complacent. With still a congested ladder below them, they won’t want to lose, let alone receive a flogging this week, as it could cause problems in the first round of the finals. A win could see them move into the top 4 if other results go their way.

For us, We don’t think they can win the game. This will change if they don’t allow the early points they conceded last time they met. If they conceded these points, we believe Brisbane at home will go on with the Job.

Stats that matter Round 24 – Brisbane (B) vs Eels (E)

Completion rate: B: 71% Vs E: 75%
Offloads: B: 13 Vs E: 6
Penalties conceded: B: 8 Vs E: 8
Errors: B: 11 Vs E: 15
Run Meters: B: 1,628 Vs E: 1,523

The Eels pack better be ready for the late offload and secure that ball in the tackle. This may lead to more penalties against them and exaggerate the potential meters that Brisbane will run for.
Team news: (Final team lists released an hour before the game)

Brisbane Broncos:
T.P. Junior is out with a hamstring complaint to which J. Su’A comes back to the 17 on the bench.

Parramatta Eels:
Another ham string complaint to B. French sees him out of the team with the finals being around the corner. W. Smith slots into the Full Back position and did play well last time he had the No.1 on his back. M. Ma’u is suspended this allows a reshuffle to occur:
K. Edwards to start in the back row, which opens up a spot for D. Gower and his mate F. Pritchard to make the 17 man squad.
Their last 5 game report card:
Brisbane have won 3 games, twice at Suncorp, Parramatta have won 2 games, once at Suncorp.

2017 – Round 21 – Parramatta won by 14 points at ANZ,
2016 – Round 23 – Brisbane won by 22 points at Suncorp,
2016 – Round 1 – Brisbane won by 13 points at Pirtek,
2015 – Round 8 – Brisbane won by 12 points at Suncorp and
2014 – Round 5 – Parramatta won by 7 points at Suncorp.

What we take from this?

With a Top four position on the line, it’s a must win for both teams. Being at Suncorp we are liking Brisbane to win, off the back of their forwards. Parramatta will do well to compete in the first 20 minutes, with a Brisbane pack looking at offloading a lot more and a well drilled back line scoring some magnificent tries.
Both teams won last week with less possession, indicating that they are taking their chances when offered.

For us the errors in Parramatta will hurt them and with Brisbane still reeling from round 21, they will be more desperate and looking for Redemption.
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STATE OF ORIGIN – GAME 3 – FREE TIPS

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State of Origin Game 3

Queensland Vs New South Wales
12 July 2017, 8pm.

The changing of the Queensland guard vs an unchanged NSW team to close off a great origin series, who wins? Let’s have a look.

Queensland Maroons, 1-0-1

Let’s start with a crazy statistic, this series Qld has used the most players ever in Origin history, with 26 Men. Including two debutants in this series decider, C. Munster (no.6) and B. Hunt (bench) they are showing a huge amount of faith in these two players. Qld have united Melbourne Storm’s Spine to sure up the loss of J. Thurston and get some continuity for their play making ability. Is this a master stroke or two much pressure? Time will tell.
The Qld forwards in game two lifted and really shut down the middle domination of NSW in game 1. It’s no secret that this again will be the focus of both teams and Qld will have the confidence to come out and “do their job” again. C. Smith has also said, “I want to contribute more” which is a scary thought for NSW fans, in his 42nd origin for Qld.
To add more emotion to their camp is strong belief that C. Cronk will be retiring from Origin football so this will be a major motivation for the Qld camp. History also leans towards a Qld victory with the last three deciders at Suncorp have been won by Qld.

Qld Be Alert:
With the potential for a late change or two to the starting NSW team, this will greatly change their dynamics. Little rumours that Klemmer will start, allowing Game 1 hero A. Fifita to come on against tired bodies is growing louder. Also inspirational NSW captain may not play or at reduced minutes, allowing W. Graham to get more time and potentially exposing Qld Right edge.

For us, the changing of the guard is almost complete and Qld still look immensely strong. With all the changes and adversity thrown their way, they always find away to turn up.
If Qld can weather the early storm and be with in a try or lead by a try in the last 10 minutes, the mental scared Blues will fall apart again.
New South Wales Blues, 1-0-1

This is the first unchanged team for an entire series for NSW since 1996 and it’s a sign for the future. However it’s not a fully healthy team, with 4 players under injury clouds, B. Cordner, J. Tedesco, J. Dugan and T. Frizell have led to the late inclusion into camp of T. Trbojevic and D. Finucane. If they play or not we won’t know until closer to game time, but it’s a slight twist to this series, which again changes the dynamics of the NSW team.
What we see though is finally some consistency in the NSW Spine, with M. Pearce, J. Maloney, N. Peats and J. Tedesco. They seem to be clicking very well as a unit and the combinations again will need to be at their best for NSW to win this game. As it always seems to be the way, M. Pearce is under all the pressure again, we are excepting J. Maloney to really help his half partner this game and therefor releasing Pearce to allow him to rise to the occasion.
J. Hayne has also received massive criticism for his second half in game 2. We will be intrigued to see his response and his match up with W. Chambers where the game could be won or loss again.

NSW Be Alert:
Qld on paper are the weakest team they have had in the last 12 years. However disregard this team at your own peril, with still 3 immortals (Smith, Cronk and Slater) in their team and the young forwards high on confidence after containing the NSW forward pack, complacency will lose you the series.

For us, NSW has to start well and not relent. Game 2 was theirs to win, however “shutting up shop” hasn’t worked in the Origin arena ever. It was a lesson that NSW will have burnt into their game style for this decider, keep the pedal to the metal.

Weather:

Looks like the Football Gods are giving us the perfect conditions for football, clear night and temperatures between 14-12*c

Team News (final team lists released an hour before game time)

QLD:
With injuries to D. Boyd and J. Thurston, M. Morgan and C. Munster have been named as replacements, allowing B. Hunt to become the utility player.

NSW:
Unchanged currently, but we expecting Klemmer to Start and Fifita to come of the bench. With still a slight chance B. Cordner won’t play, we expect W. Graham to start and J. D-Belin to come onto the bench.

What we take from this?

It has been built up by channel 9 and some media outlets, that this is the most anticipated game Ever in Origin history. We tend to disagree, with Qld in a stage of transition and ravaged by injures, it is really NSW under all the pressure, to get a series win.

For us the faster track suits the NSW forward pack, game two highlighted this, where the slipperier conditions allowed Qld to “close the gate” better in the middle. We also worry about Qld kicking options, game 1 was two dimensional in Cronk and Smith, game 2 with Thurston it allowed the pressure to be moved and they were much more effective. If NSW are winning the middle, Smith will be less likely to kick, forcing Cronk again to work his magic.
We can’t wait for the centre battles on both sides, the game could change on a dime if either of those four players get any dominance on their opposite number.
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NRL ROUND 14 – SHARKS v STORM – FREE TIPS

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Cronulla Sharks Vs Melbourne Storm
8 June 2017, 7:50pm (AEST)
Southern Cross Group Stadium

The second replay of last years grand final and a mini state of origin rematch is awaiting the eager fans of the NRL. Can the Sharks Shut out the Storm again? Or will the Storm get its revenge away from home? Needless to say, it’s going to be a Bobby Dazzler!!!

Cronulla Sharks, 9-0-3, 2nd.

Blink and you have missed their start to the season, nothing flash but they have built a “Blue Wall” to rival the Great Wall of China.

The Sharks had the round off last week, which was excellent for the Origin players, allowing full recover and mental preparation for this week’s block buster. We are still yet to see the Sharks replicate their attacking prowess of last year, however they have maintained the defensive structures the best to date. They have conceded a measly 154 points from 12 rounds, an average of 12.84 a game, making them the best team in this category. This is traditionally how you win premierships and there is a growing belief that this team could go “back to back” premiership winners.

Their game style of grinding teams down has allowed them to get away with not scoring a great deal of points. Unbelievably only 227 points to date, the 5th “worst” attacking team, with an average of 18.91 per game. Confusing for the younger generation who are in love with Try Scorers and fancy plays. The Sharks have this ability, however are still a tad off from piling on the points. It could be attributed to a new Full back and Hooker and to be fair, they lost two very influential players in those spots.

For us, watch the forwards battle. There is a genuine building hatred/rivalry between these two clubs and both forwards don’t mind a bit of “chatting/sledging” on the park. Add in the recent NSW victory to add a bit more Fire as the Origin players try to step up another level.
Melbourne Storm, 10-0-2, 1st.

The Purple machine just keeps on rolling, reminding the competition that they are the Bench mark once again through 13 rounds in 2017.

Last round it was a “contact training run” vs a Newcastle Knights team that didn’t stand a chance and allowed the Storm to rest C. Smith. In recent trips to AAMI park, the Knights have caused an upset. However the Storms fans were put at ease just two minutes in with S. Vunivalu crossing for a try. By the 17th minute it was 16-0, a lucky/unlucky decision for the Knights saw their momentum stopped by a forward pass, the Storm looked comfortable at Half Time 16-6.
Any chance of a come back was quickly squashed with some Slater magic in the 43rd minute. The game was beyond the Knights by the 62nd minute, down 36-6, which allowed C. Cronk an early shower. Slater was outstanding, another reminder to Qld selectors that maybe he should be in the team.

The Storm Averages 23.16 in attacking points (4th best) and are the second best team in defending, only allow on average 14.75 in defence. They will need to score close to 18 points to beat the Sharks this round.

For us, like the Sharks, the forwards won’t back down and with C. Smith rested, he will be chomping at the bit to get revenge for this years defeat at his home ground. He won’t back down, especially if P. Gallen is “chatting” to him all match.

Weather:

It’s going to be clearing from thunder storms, from the last two days, this will make the forwards battle even more important. Keeping the game to the middle third of the ground and limiting scoring chances.

Stats that matter:

Games vs Top 8 Won/Loss – Sharks, 6 games, 4/2, Storm 4 games, 3/1
Possession Average – Sharks 51%, Storm 48%
Completion rate – Sharks 74%, Storm 76%
Average run meters – Sharks 1,648m, Storm 1,541m
Average Errors – Sharks 12, Storm 11

Team news: (Final team lists released an hour before the game)

Cronulla Sharks

All 4 NSW players return and J. Segeyaro is a slight chance to return after he broke his arm vs the last time these two teams met.

Melbourne Storm

C. Smith is a Massive In for the Storm, with B. Smith dropping out of the team, suggesting C. Smith isn’t injured or is going to play through this pain. Coach Bellamy has gone for the size of J. McLean to start, pushing Glasby and Griffin onto the bench.

Both teams have gone for large bench positions, once again both coaches expecting a tight middle third game.

Their last 5 game report card:
Cronulla Sharks won 3 games, once at Southern Cross Group stadium.
Melbourne Storm won 2 games, once at Southern Cross Group Stadium.

2017 – Round 6 – Sharks won by 9 at AAMI Park.
2016 – Grand Final – Sharks won by 2 at ANZ stadium.
2016 – Round 26 – Melbourne won by 20 at AAMI Park.
2016 – Round 4 – Sharks won by 8 at Southern Cross Group Stadium.
2015 – Round 23 – Storm won by 28 at Southern Cross Group stadium.

What we take from this?

Both teams will be up for this game, the Storm rested their captain with an eye on this game after their loss in Melbourne earlier in the year. The Sharks were lucky with the week off allowing their stars to recover well before this clash.
We are expecting fire works as this “Modern day Rivalry” enters another chapter into the history books.
The Storm will need to hit their average in attack, as their last 4 matches vs the Sharks they have been held too 2, 12,26 and 6. Losing 3 out of those games being held to 12 or less.

For Us the statistics that stand out for the Sharks to win is their average possession rate and average run meters. The Sharks with the week off also is a plus, really allowing the coaching staff to dial into this game and get their structures in place.

Another cracking game awaits, Sharks win in a close encounter.

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STATE OF ORIGIN – GAME 1 – FREE TIPS

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State of Origin Game 1

Queensland Vs New South Wales
31 May 2017, 8:10pm.
Suncorp Stadium.

Well it’s the best time of year, Queensland Vs New South Wales, Mate Vs Mate, State Vs State! It is arguably the greatest time to be a fan of this great game, with every person picking a team and getting behind them 100%.

Queensland

A team full of immortals for the last 11 years, has been forced into changes due to a horror injury toll and players left out of selection. Qld will be with out J. Thurston (many NSW fans still believe he will play until the final team lists are named), G. Inglis , M. Scott, C. Parker (retired) and B. Slater (controversial admission). It’s a new look Qld team but what has not changed in 40 Origin games is their captain and NRL legend C. Smith. With his General C. Cronk by his side and D. Boyd sweeping around the back from set plays, it’s still a very formidable team.

A lot of the spot light has been on A. Milford this week, with a lot of questions about his kicking game and he will be tested in defence with the NSW second rowers charging at him. Milford is a great player in broken play, traditionally in game 1, it’s a tight affair and low scoring, will he get a broken line in defence? Time will tell, he will need to be at his best to try and help Smith and Cronk to deliver another first game win.

With B. Slater being omitted, pressure shifts to D. Boyd and C. Oates who were the incumbents of last year and Coach Walters made the tough call on them. Coach Walters didn’t want to put Slater under huge pressure for a Game 1 in origin. It could be argued that B. Slater is the greatest Full back to ever have pulled on the No.1 jumper at any level. However, D. Boyd is in great form for his club and did represent Australia earlier in the year, in our opinion, Coach Walters made the correct call. What this does however is place C. Oates under immense pressure and that worries us. He hasn’t been at his best but the Qld Camp seems to make players grow an inch or two for the big games.

New South Wales

Once again New South Wales have tinkered with their team as they search for a First game victory to try and stem the Qld onslaught of the last 11 years. The return of M. Pearce and exclusion of R. Farah for N. Peats are the biggest talking points in game 1. Coach Daley has made these moves based on the form of M. Pearce and sending a message to his team that he wants his halves to run the shots.
Pearce is arguably in the greatest form of his career, he has not performed in origin, but he’s payed his dues and now it’s his time to stand up. He will get more early service from Peats and this will help him no end. He also has his old partner in crime J. Maloney, who can ease the pressure on him if required.

What is exciting for us, is the mixture of age, talent and in form players. It’s arguably NSW best forward pack in many a year with the majority of players able to play the 80 minutes in club games. The options in attack have grown 10 fold with the Edge Back rowers able to kick and deliver passes if required. With the middle of the field being the gauge of who will win, NSW have taken big steps to combat the experience Qld middle players, it’s just mouth watering to wait and see.

The spotlight for us will be on J. Tedesco. He has been holding the West Tigers team together and busting his guts week in week out for no result. For NSW sake we hope he can be at his best working off the back of his forwards (who will be 100 times better than his club level). He has looked tired the last few weeks, but he has been carrying a heavy load, in this team he will be able to relax more and play his natural game which is slicing and dicing defensive structures. A lot of talk also about N. Peats, for us he will play a straight game and deliver early ball to his halves, simple play to allow his backs to do their work.

Team lists

Both teams are expected to be named 1-17, however if you speak to the NSW die hard fans they still believe Thurston is a chance until the final team lists are announced an hour before the game.

Their last 6 game report card:
2016 – Game 3 – NSW won by 4 at ANZ stadium
2016 – Game 2 – QLD won by 10 at Suncorp Stadium
2016 – Game 1 – QLD won by 2 at ANZ stadium
2015 – Game 3 – Qld won by 46 at Suncorp Stadium
2015 – Game 2 – NSW won by 8 at Melbourne Cricket Ground
2015 – Game 1 – Qld won by 1 at ANZ stadium

What we take from this?

It’s a simple equation in origin, if you win game 1 you have a 74% chance of winning the series since the conception of State of Origin. Home ground advantage is a massive component in origin as well, this first game is in QLD which leans us to a QLD victory. C. Smith and C. Cronk are the Key, C. Smith is able to influence the ruck and game speed better than any other player to date. With his ability to read the game is second to none and we aren’t sure how NSW can combat this. The only series NSW has won in the last decade, was when C. Cronk did not play all the games, he is often overlooked in this great team, but he is the best Half back in the modern era. Watch his control off the back of his forwards and his ability to deliver the fatal pass/kick, well, there is none better.

For Us Qld win the game, with a lot of team changes we aren’t trying to cap the total or margin, it seems unbelievable that Qld have moved to the below odds.
GL and enjoy this great contest.

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NRL ROUND 11 – SHARKS v COWBOYS – FREE TIPS

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Cronulla Sharks Vs North Queensland Cowboys
18 May 2017, 7:50pm (AEST)
Southern Cross Group Stadium

The minor premiers are 6 wins from their last 7 starts, in stark contrast to the 2015 champions who are stumbling and bumbling their way with 4 wins from 7 games. A great origin test for some hopefuls is the cheery on top for this clash.

Cronulla Sharks, 2nd, 7-0-3
It must be said that the Sharks error rate almost cost them against the spirited Dragons outfit last round. If G. Widdop was fit and playing the result could have been a flogging with the Dragons scoring 30+ points. But the Sharks keep demonstrating their pride for their mates and defend with their lives in their 20m zone. They continue to stop teams from scoring points, since round 1 (Brisbane 26 points) they have not conceded more than 18 points (Knights round 5) for the rest of the year to date. Their points total scored against them currently is 132, the next best team is the Roosters at 152 (3 converted tries and a penalty goal) an absolutely crazy statistic.

S. Feki scored two tries in the last round and seems to be finding the ball more, which is a positive sign. Many people have forgotten about his skills that he has and we expect him to keep producing the goods for his club. With Holmes turning out 173m, Fifita 162m, Gallen 154m, Bird 149m and Leutele 120m the go forward was very impressive, they will need to be wary of their handling this round, as the Cowboys clicked well last week.

For us the Sharks can start getting their attack in order, this team has the potential to go deep this year once again.

North Queensland Cowboys, 6th, 6-0-4

The Cowboys shook off the haters last week and put the Bulldogs to the sword. M. Morgan keeps reminding the Qld faithful that he is ready, with some magnificent kicking that lead to ties and sustained pressure. They also had an outstanding completion rate of 83% and had 4 less errors than the Bulldogs, which helped their dominating win. 5 tries, 2 to second rower sensation C. Hess, Feldt, Spina and Morgan caped off his brilliant performance with a try also. Morgan had his best game to date and was in full control for the whole 80 minutes, a promising sign for this club to move forward into the future post J. Thurston’s career.

With M. Scott out for the season many people were wondering who would help J. Taumalolo, enter S. Bolton. Massive stats for this game with 162m from 16 runs and a lazy 35 tackles, thank you very much, to lead both those statistics for his game in round 10. Former half back J. Asiata, proved that his motor is still large after his games in the backs. A 144m, tied in with 24 tackles, is a great sign for his coach that they can function without him calling the shots and allowing him just to run hard and straight. R. Thompson had his moments in the match, some good and some poor, however he will get better as this year progresses. He will need to run more than 9m this week, as the sharks will be hunting Morgan extremely hard.

For us, this game is a reminder that the Cowboys can score points if you are not focused for the entire 80 minutes.

Stats that matter from Round 10

Completion rate: Sharks 68%, NQ 83%
Offloads: Sharks 13, NQ 4
Missed Tackles: Sharks 33, NQ 16
Penalties conceded: Sharks 7, NQ 11 (1 sin bin)

Team news: (Final team lists released an hour before the game)

Cronulla Sharks

M. Prior accepted the option to accept a 1 week ban, this promotes C. Heighington to starting prop. J. Paulo drops off the bench making way for J. Bukuya, with no other changes expected.

North Queensland Cowboys

It’s a mystery to see if J. Thurston will play tomorrow or he will be withdrawn. The general consensus is that he won’t play, due to origin being around the corner, however he is mentally tough and may convince his coach otherwise if he can prove his fitness. If he does get the green light, expect R. Thompson to drop from the 17, with Hampton acting as “cover” for the worst case scenario. Interestingly K. Ponga is named as number 21, so like last week we expect him to drop off the list barring injury, which is unfortunate as this kid should be playing at the top level.

Their last 5 game report card:

Cronulla Sharks, 3 wins with 2 being at home and one at Allianz stadium
North Queensland Cowboys, 2 wins both at 1300 SMILES stadium

2016 – Round 29 – Sharks won by 12 at Allianz Stadium
2016 – Round 14 – Sharks won by 3 at Southern Cross Group Stadium
2016 – Round 1 – Cowboys won by 6 points at 1300 SMILES Stadium
2015 – Round 28, Cowboys won by 39 points at 1300 SMILES Stadium
2015 – Round 22, Sharks won by 12 at Southern Cross Group Stadium

What we take from this?

It’s going to be a great teaser for the upcoming origin series, with Maloney and Morgan on show and possibly the halves that will meet in game 1. If either half really takes control of the game it will go a long way into them getting chosen to represent their state, we are leaning towards Maloney due to his larger forward pack. With that in mind, other origin hopefuls will be on display, W. Graham, A. Fifita, C. Hess, G. Cooper will be also treating this as a trial, adding more fuel to this already mouth-watering game.

We believe that the offloading from the Sharks players is going to worry the Cowboys. The Sharks average 11.4 (6th highest) a game compared to 5 (last) for the Cowboys, highlighting this is the All Run Meter comparison which leans towards the Sharks with 1,628 average meters to the Cowboys 1,565m. For the Cowboys to combat this, they will need to beat their average of 52% (1st) possession rate and also top their tackle bust average of 32 (1st). If the Sharks error rate is high (12 or more, worst in the competition) and concede their average penalties (8 a game, once again worst in the NRL) it will be a lot closer than people give credit for.

For this reason we are taking the Tri Bet on Sports Bet,

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NRL ROUND 10 – BULLDOGS v COWBOYS – FREE TIPS

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Canterbury Bulldogs Vs North Queensland Cowboys
11 May 2017, 7:50pm (AEST) ANZ Stadium
Unfortunately this game is missing big names from both teams, which will sour this tough match up. Which team will miss it’s half the most, will that will decide the game. Let’s have a look.
Canterbury Bulldogs, 8th, 5-0-4
A massive confidence boost to the Bulldogs with a gutsy win over the Canberra Raiders by 6 points. The Morris brothers showing why they can still play origin by putting on a Master class on “Lei-Pana”. The determination of the squad was on full display when they lost both Graham and J. Reynolds to HIA and injury. They did not falter in the middle third and handled the attacking plays thrown at them. This will hold them in good stead this week, against a Cowboys outfit missing a super star and welcoming a few players back, which will disrupt some combinations. W. Hopoate is playing like a man possessed (and is off contract) his timely return to form really adds some depth to the Bulldogs and is one to watch for us.

North Queensland Cowboys, 9th 5-0-4
It’s the age old question, can the Cowboys win without J. Thurston. A very ordinary start to the year and it continued this way as they were defeated by a rampaging Eels, led by one C. Norman at home, 6-26. It took 64 minutes for them to cross the line, if they take that long to score this week, it will not be a pretty sight for their faithful fans. 13 incomplete sets really highlighted their performance in a nut shell. No matter who you play, if you complete at 66% you will be hammered, the obvious statement is they need to switch this statistic 180 degrees to be able to compete against the Bulldogs. Taumalolo needs help, he is a monster, but he can’t carry this team, last week he carried the ball for 115m, the nearest forward was Bolton with a poultry 84m. A few big inclusions for them this week, will they help Taumalolo to combat a building Bulldogs pack? Time will tell.
Stats that matter from Round 9
Completion rate: BUL 82%, NQ 66%
Run meters: BUL 1,848m, NQ 1,251m
If the numbers look the same after the final whistle, the Bulldogs have a large win next to their name.
Team news: (Final team lists released an hour before the game)
Canterbury Bulldogs team changes:
J. Reynolds is out with a ham string injury, approximately 5 weeks. This allows M. Frawley to start. The other change is G. Eastwood to start and Score trying sensation A. Elliot is bumped back to warm the bench.
North Queensland Cowboys team changes:
Put the kettle on, we are going to be here for a while; ok the Big IN’s are J. Granville and L. Coote. Also a surprise inclusion of R. Thomson in for the injured J. Thurston, which signals the end to the “Asiata” experiment in the halves. He moves back to the front row, with E. Lowe and S. Fensom making the starting side and bench respectfully. Second row sensation, C. Hess is named on the bench also with K. Ponga dropped to number 21 to make way for L. Coote. Granville returns to the hooker position, moving Hampton to a utility role on the bench and Leary to number 19.
However, we aren’t sold on their starting line-up, with the high chance of L. Coote switching to the Halves and K. Ponga to full back. This would push out R. Thompson who has come out of right field. But as it says above final team lists will be known an hour from kick off. A small hint will come tonight around 8pm, when they will have to drop two players for the 21 list. If Ponga is still there he may be a late inclusion, if he is dropped off, we believe 1-13 will be correct.

Their last 5 game report card:
Canterbury Bulldogs have won only the one game (away) from the last 5 starts.
North Queensland Cowboys take a dominate 4 wins into this match up, two of those were away wins.
2016 – Round 25 – NQ won by 8 points at Belmore Stadium
2016 – Round 20 – NQ won by 36 points at 1300 SMILES Stadium
2015 – Round 9 – NQ won by 7 at 1300 SMILES Stadium
2014 – Round 20 – NQ won by 8 points at ANZ Stadium
2013 – Round 13 – Bulldogs won by 10 points at 1300 SMILES Stadium

What we take from this?
By the Books it’s been an age for a Bulldogs victory, but what we can say is that J. Thurston played in each of those wins in History. From what we have seen this year minus his ability, NQ have looked lost. Two influential players are back, but first game back will be rusty.

Brief summary
For us the Bulldogs ($1.60) deserve the favourite tag for this match. They will miss J. Reynolds and his inspirational plays, however NQ will miss J. Thurston more. Coote and Granville will keep the score line respectable, however we don’t expect them to be at their best with extended breaks from “Game fitness”. Bulldogs will be too strong in the middle third and will take the two competition points.

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NRL ROUND 8 – STORM v WARRIORS- FREE TIPS

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Melbourne Storm Vs New Zealand Warriors
25 April 2017, 7pm (AEST)
AAMI Park

Melbourne Storm, 2nd, 6-0-1

For a club that won the game, the press conference resembled more like a wake, than a happy coach and captain. Captain C. Smith was not happy with his sides performance and let it be known. He Heavily criticised their defensive effort (allowed 5 tries) as soft, one thing for sure I wouldn’t want to be at his captains run this week.
Despite his thoughts, the Storm skipped away to a flying start, scoring in the first minute and quickly followed this up with three more tries, taking an early 18-0 lead. They allowed 2 tries but then hit back with two of their own via F. Kaufusi, but a late B. Kelly try kept Manly in the hunt.
The Storm then didn’t score a solitary point in the second 40 minutes, the previous week they failed to score a try vs Cronulla, a little concerning, however hey did enough to get the two points vs a gutsy Manly team.
New Zealand Warriors, 11th, 3-0-4

One of the hardest teams to get a read on and last round was not much better. They came flying out of the gates vs the Raiders and scored the opening try in the 6th minute. A shock to all the Raiders fans, but that would be the last time they would cross over the white line. A S. Johnson penalty conversion would be the only other points for them. It was a gallant effort by the Warriors, holding the Raiders out until the 19th minute, where B.J. Leilua scored his first of 2 tries for the night. The Warriors then managed to take the lead into half time and with held a lot of the Raiders attacking plays off. It took, B.J.Leilua in the 59th minute to get over and what seems to be a trend for the Raiders, is if they score one try and second and sometimes third try isn’t far away. Unfortunately for the Warriors, this was the case with sustained pressure from the Raiders, a sneaky snipe from J. Hodgson in the 66th minute all but sealed their loss. A gallant effort away from home, but it gets no easier this week.

Stats that matter:
Round 7
Completion rate Storm 91%, Warriors 67%
Errors Storm 5 to Warriors 17
Missed tackles comparison Storm 22, Warriors 37
Possession 49% to storm, Warriors 46%
Run meters Storm 1,527m, Warriors 1,474m
Points scored Storm 30, Warriors 8
Points leaked Storm 26, Warriors 20

Team news: (Final team lists released an hour before the game)

Melbourne Storm

C. Munster is still relegated onto the bench with R. Jacks showing enough to start. This may change, time will tell. If they run with a similar interchange Munster will get the lions share of game time again.
W. Chambers slots back into centre, forcing Y. Tonumaipea out to 18th man, as S. Vinivalu and J.A-Carr has secured the wing positions this year to date.
team changes, injuries to affect game

New Zealand Warriors

Finally getting some consistency in their team with no changes listed 1-17, but exciting news for B. Matulino fans as he could make his return on the bench.

Their last 5 game report card:

Storm have won 4 games, 2 at AAMI park,
NZ have won once and that was at Mt Smart stadium.

2017 – Round 2 – Storm won by 16 points at MT Smart Stadium
2016 – Round 8 – Storm won by 42 points at AAMI stadium
2016 – Round 3 – Storm won by 7 points at MT Smart Stadium
2015 – Round 18 – NZ won by 14 points at MT Smart Stadium
2015 – Round 5 – Storm won by 16 points at AAMI Park

Fun fact for the conspiracy lovers out there, NZ has won every three years at AAMI stadium since 2011:
2011, won by 4 and 8 points, 2012 Lost by 18, 2013 lost by 10,
2014 Won by 6, 2015 lost by 16, 2016 lost by 42
2017…………can they cause an upset? So far this round 4 under dogs have from 6 games.
What we take from this?
It will be a hard slog for the Warriors this game, with C. Smith’s post game reaction I would not want to be playing them this week. The Storm will be too clinical and with less errors they will be unable to upset the Warriors. If the Warriors get unpicked early with a few tries, it could get ugly.

For Us Storm win, however $1.30 odds is not worth the risk, especially in this round where the under dogs seem to be winning.

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Why?
In round 2 this year the Warriors only managed 10 points at Home vs the Storm.
So far this season on away games (3), New Zealand have not scored over 12 points.
The Storm have not conceded more than 12 points whilst being at home in 2017.

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NRL ROUND 8 – SHARKS v TITANS- FREE TIPS

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Cronulla Sharks Vs Gold Coast Titans
22 April 2017, 7:40pm (AEST)
Southern Cross Stadium

Can the Premiers of 2016, maintain their defence against an injury riddled Gold Coast Titans (GCT) outfit that is a shell of their week one team.
Will the Blue Wall maintain its current Defensive dominance or can the GCT cause a massive upset?

Cronulla Sharks, 5-0-2, 3rd

Another enormous defensive effort by the Sharks, as for the second time in consecutive weeks they held the opposition to Zero tries. Now these weren’t bottom dwellers teams, they are serious title contenders in the Melbourne Storm and Penrith Panthers. To make this even more impressive both these games were away games for the Sharks. A massive effort across the park is what is starting to convince many a critic that the Sharks can go “back to back” Premierships. Penrith had their star players returned but even with this, the Sharks held strong and really pressured the Penrith young halves and ground them out of the game. V. Holmes was out of this world, with 219m, 2 offloads and a line break. He’s really growing well into the Full back position that he’s wanted for a very long time. The Sharks forwards really set the platform this week, with Heighington (138m) Fifita (123m) Graham (121m) Gallen (115m) and Lewis (100m) really dominating the Penrith pack, only allowing 2 forwards to cross the 100m for the game, Yeo (127m) and R.C-Gillard (101m). A special mention must go out to W. Graham, aka the Homing Missile, for shutting down any halves that dare to come to his side of the field. Executing bone crushing tackles and his ability to read the plays before they unfold. He’s sticking his hand up for the representation rounds coming up. With reporters backing his name to Break into the Australian team and to be selected in the Blues team come origin.

Gold Coast Titans, 1-0-6, 15th

Pre season the GCT must have really upset the “footy gods” as the injury curse continued last week. With R. James, C. Grevsmuhl, D. Copley and M. King all joining the injury ward. They were heart brokenly defeated by a charged down kick in the 78th minute that led to J. Roberts scoring his 3rd try that night. Statistically speaking they should have won the game, with a higher completion rate, more kick meters, less errors, more conversions and more completed sets. But where the fear is this week, as per last week is their go forward and total meters were poor with 341m less than the Broncos. A Special mention to J. Wallace, who played his best game to date against his old club, smashing and bashing 264m from 26 runs, 33 tackles, 3 tackle busts. He will have to be at this level again to try and help his GCT to a victory this week against one of the best packs going around.

Team news: (Final team lists released an hour before the game)

Cronulla Sharks

Named 1-17 for the 2nd week in a row.

Gold Coast Titans

Few unknowns this week, with 3 star players all potentially coming back. Most likely is J. Hayne returning to the side, with rumours Proctor and Hurrell could be more than 50% chances of getting a run on or bench position.

Their last 5 game report card:
Sharks have won 2 games, once at Southern Cross Group.
Gold Coast Titans have won 2 games, surprisingly both at Southern Cross Group.
And they have had a draw.

2016 – Round 21 – DRAW (18-18) – CBUS Stadium
2016 – Round 6 – Sharks won by 5 – Southern Cross Group Stadium
2015 – Round 10 – Sharks won by 1 – CBUS Stadium
2015 – Round 4 – GCT won by 2 – Southern Cross Group Stadium
2014 – Round 1 – GCT won by 6 – Southern Cross Group Stadium

What we take from this?

This is a danger game for the Sharks, with their coaching staff doing their best to stop “complacency” creeping into this match up. On paper, the Sharks team and statistics are screaming an easy victory and for us we have to agree. History suggests it will be a close encounter, with the largest winning margin from their last 5 games only being 6 points and a Draw, however this doesn’t take into consideration the current form guide.
With more team changes than a Casinos deck of cards for the GCT, we don’t see them finding a flow to be able to stifle the Sharks.

For Us the Sharks will be to strong across the park and are in exceptional form.

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NRL ROUND 8 – RAIDERS v SEA EAGLES- FREE TIPS

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Canberra Raiders Vs Manly Sea Eagles
21 April 2017, 6pm (AEST)
GIO Stadium

The Raiders are on a three game winning streak, can “Lei-Pana” dominance continue with the engine room delivering top end results? Vs a Manly team much like their resident beach, up and down waves, in wins and losses this season to date.
Can a Maroon Tidal wave make its way in land to the Nations capital? Or will the Raiders ride this wave into another winning sun set?

Canberra Raiders, 4-0-3, 5th

The “Lei-Pana” combination continues to develop and deliver results. Last week vs the Warriors, it was B.J. Leilua to benefit in the try department. He scored 2 or their 3 tries, 19th and 59th minute, with Hodgson sealing the game in the 66th minute. J. Croker continued his high scoring in matches (8 points) and kicked the Warriors out of the game, winning 20-8. The Raiders once again destroyed their opponents in run meters, last week by 349m, with 10 of their 17 players clearing 100m each, half of which where forwards. Paulo (185m), Papalii (180m) Soliola (138m) Boyd (128m) and Whitehead (122m) all continue their middle destructions of teams. This allowed Wighton (186m) Rapana (158m) Leilua (139m) Cotric (125m) and Croker (107m) to pick and choose their runs and get the victory. Another 80 minute performance that will keep the positive vibes rolling in the “Green Machines” camp. They are more then making up for the slow start to the season, showing why people are rating them a chance to go all the way in 2017. Now we are moving into the colder months of the year they will be harder again to beat, with the likely hood of playing along side penguins and polar bears in the next months.

Manly Sea Eagles, 3-0-4, 9th

So close yet so far, is a fair wrap up of their game vs the Storm. Manly let in 6 tries in the first half, the first in the opening minute of the game. But showed some real determination and worked hard for each other and reduced the deficit to 14 points at Half time, score line of 30-16. The 2nd 40 minutes they held the Storm to a Duck Egg, Zero points, but couldn’t score enough with only managing 2 tries to take the final score to 26-30. The main concern for Manly was extremely poor defence from their left edge (B. Kelly and J. Taufua). They will be working extremely hard this week, before they match up against, yep you guessed it “Lei-Pana”. However If Manly forget about Croker and Cotric (who are growing as an impressive pair themselves) it could be a very long day indeed. We are worried for Manly, as last week was a physical affair and now they will be walking into another hard fought game upfront. For them to be a chance of winning, they need to turn around their 76% completion rate, reduce their error rate from 8 and fix up their kicking game. A tough ask in 6 days.

Team news: (Final team lists released an hour before the game)

Canberra Raiders

No changes, expected to run out 1-17 as per last week’s game.

Manly Sea Eagles

A collective sigh of relief from Manly fans as Big Bodied M. Taupau returns to the starting side. His offload will be one to watch, with their spine working off his massive shoulders.
L. Perrett is out with injury and A.Fonua-Blake is expected dot take his place on the bench.
N. Myles has also been named after his “rest” last week and is listed as no.18. For Qld coach and fans, they would be hoping to see him out there against a large pack to keep his hat in the ring off a big performance, for the upcoming representational period.
The remainder of the bench is a little confusing with 2 utilities named, vs a large Raiders pack, this is leading us to think that they will try to run them around the park.

Their last 5 game report card:
Raiders have won 3 games, once at GIO, Manly have won 2 games, also once at GIO.

2016 – Round 25 – Raiders won by 14 at Lottoland
2016 – Round 13 – Raiders won by 12 at GIO
2015 – Round 23 – Manly won by 2 at GIO
2015 – Round 5 – Raiders won by 13 at Lavington
2014 – Round 8 – Manly won by 36 at Lottoland

What we take from this?
Last years form of the Raiders is starting to be replicated now this year, if not better as their combinations and forwards have grown immensely. We see a Raiders victory here and the odds of $1.25 are saying the Bookies do also. Before last weeks results we were thinking Total Game Points Over 42.5, with their last 5 games going over this total. However the Storm where terrible in defence last week and the Raiders held the Warriors for the first time this year under 10 points.

For Us the Raiders defence will win this game by frustrating Manly’s key men, forcing errors and giving the Green machines forwards to much ball. As we have seen this year to date, if the Forwards are chewing up the middle metres, the Raiders backs have the class to finish it off.

We have the Raiders winning by 12+, the best odds we have found are on Ladbrokes:

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